In our last commentary, we suggested that a higher-for-longer interest rate environment, flattening global growth, and fears of an impending recession would put pressure on equities over the short-term. While we still hold that perspective, we were clearly a bit early in expressing that view and have been a bit surprised by the level of Read More
In this space twelve months ago, our view was that rapidly rising global inflation and the resultant restrictive monetary policy would create challenging conditions for capital markets, and that a defensive position was called for. That position proved valuable, as a bias toward risk aversion avoided meaningful capital losses.
Coming into the year, our capital markets positioning was cautious given extreme valuations, rising inflation, and questionable prospects for continued growth. Our assumption was that an intense rise in prices for consumers — driven by a decade of accommodative monetary policy following the Global Financial Crisis extending through the COVID era — would need to Read More
Some quick thoughts on recent market volatility and declining asset prices.
It is difficult to believe that this is the third consecutive investment letter that has addressed the potential or actual impact of COVID-19 on financial markets. It appears the worst of it is over, and we are entering into an era of tolerable coexistence with the virus. Financial markets, as forward-looking mechanisms, are adjusting to Read More